Hitters I'm Excited for in 2025

Michael Toglia

1B-Colorado Rockies

Toglia is entering likely his first season as the Rockies full-time first baseman. He was on the Rockies 2024 opening day roster but was sent down on April 24th after a rough start to the season. He was called up again in June after having success in Triple A and finally seemed to find his groove as a big leaguer the rest of the season. An initial glance at his 2024 season final numbers of a .218 average, and .767 OPS don’t necessarily jump off the page. However, when looking at his swing profile and the type of contact he makes; there is a lot to be excited about. His xwoBA of .358 was in the top 10% of qualified hitters in the MLB last year. In addition his AVG Exit Velocity, Barrel &, hard-hit% and LA Sweet-spot% were all above the 90th percentile last season. The one that stood out most to me was his 98th percentile barrel % of 17.3% which was behind only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Giancarlo Stanton, and Juan Soto. Not a bad group to be part of. The only weakness we see in his stat cast profile is his squared-up/swing% which was just 21.4% and in the bottom 16% of MLB hitters. This does take him a tier down from hitters like Juan Soto or Shohei Ohtani who run high power and batting average numbers but keeps him on an impressive tier still with top level power hitters like Giancarlo Stanton and Tyler O’Neill. Lastly, Toglia walks at an elite rate especially for his age. His 11.8% walk percentage in 2024 was in the 92nd percentile and almost 4% higher than the average walk rate for players aged 25 In the 2024 season. He does swing and miss and strike out much more than we would like however. He ran a 34.9 whiff% and 32.1 strike out% in 2024. This is pretty typical for young players and when looking at aging curves should improve with more time in the MLB and Toglia is entering his peak according to aging curves this season at age 26. Toglia hit 21 home runs from June to the end of the season in 2024 and going into 2025 I can easily see a 35+ home run season in his range of outcomes.

Cardinals trio: Nolan Gorman, Jordan Walker, and Lars Nootbaar

2B, OF- St. Louis Cardinals

Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker are both former first round picks in 2018 and 2020 respectively. Gorman, 24, and Walker, 22, are players the Cardinals desperately hope breakout this season and help lift them to a more successful 2025 and beyond. Walker and Gorman both have popped as prospects thanks to their elite bat speeds and exit velocities. Gorman’s 2023 season is what gives me the most hope for his future. He had a 97th percentile barrel% and a .354 xwoBA which was in the 80th percentile. Gorman is actually very similar to Toglia in that his strength comes in barreling the ball and hitting it hard while having an above average walk percentage and does not chase a lot. However, the weakness comes in his squared-up% which was just 17.7% in 2023 and 17.3% in 2024. He also whiffs and strikes out at an extremely high rate. Something that can in part be attributed to his inexperience and young age. There has been a lot of talk about swing changes for Gorman throughout spring training about focusing more on contact. Time will tell if these adjustments are applied and effective but Gorman has a lot of underlying skills that make him exciting for 2025. There is a lot less data on Jordan Walker as he only has 584 big league at bats but in those at bats he has an average exit velocity of 89.9 and a max EV of 115.5. The 115.5 max EV put him in the top 4% of major league hitters in 2024. He swings fast and hits the ball extremely hard. Walker has also struggled to make ideal contact in his small sample size of big league play. He has just a 20.5 squared-up% which is well below league average. Walker does have more chase and swing and miss than one would like and doesn’t walk at a high rate. However, he is just 22 years old and walk rate and strikeout rate tend to improve as players get more major league experience. Both Gorman and Walker are extremely exciting players to watch on the Cardinals this year and will be big parts of a team hoping to surprise a lot of people in 2025.

Lars Nootbaar is a little different from Walker and Gorman in that he has been around longer as a 27 year old but has been hindered by injuries his whole career. However, his stat cast numbers jump off the page. In 2024 he was elite in exit velocity, hart hit%, squared-up% and had incredible plate discipline with a 100th percentile chase rate and a 98th percentile walk rate, while having an 82nd percentile whiff%. In addition he had an xwoBA in the 89th percentile. A player like Nootbaar reminds me a lot of a Ketel Marte. Not quite the 2024 level Ketel Marte yet but the 2021 numbers for Marte were comparable to Nootbaar’s 2024 numbers.

Yainer Diaz

C-Houston Astros

We have seen 2 versions of Yainer Diaz in 2023 vs 2024. 2023 we saw the higher power output where he hit 23 home runs in just 377 plate appearances. On the contrary, in 2024 we saw him hit 1 tick shy of .300 at .299 and hit just 16 home runs in 619 plate appearances. This was not because of any drop offs in exit velocity as his average exit velocity in both 2023 and 2024 was 90.2 mph. His hard hit % actually increased almost 4% from 43.9 to 47.5%. The problem that led to decreased home run numbers was he hit the ball hard but he hit it on the ground over half of the time. In 2023 he had a fly ball% of 29.6 and that dropped to just 18.7% in 2024. Both versions of Diaz are good in different ways which makes me excited to see him play in 2025 regardless of his fly ball %. However, if he finds a way to life the ball just a little bit more he can easily become a high average, a 20+ home run hitter. Diaz reminds me a lot of Salvador Perez in almost every facet of his game. High average, good power, and poor discipline at the plate. Diaz does have an extremely low walk rate at just 3.9% In 2024, however this was up 1% from his 2.9% in 2023. In addition, his chase% of 42.6% is not super exciting but Diaz is just 26 years old and again these are statistics that tend to improve as players gain big league experience. Even with the low walk rate, he is great at making contact and therefore doesn’t run high strike out numbers. He struck out just 17.3% of the time in 2024 which was 74th percentile. His whiff% is slightly above league average at 24% but this was a 3.6% decrease from his 2023 number. I am very high on Diaz entering 2025 and fully believe he could be the top offensive catcher in the AL next season.

Lawrence Butler

OF- Athletics

Butler is entering 2025 on a fresh 7 year contract extension from the Athletics. At just a 9.35 average annual value this contract looks like it will end up being a bargain for the Athletics. Butler is another player who’s baseball savant page shows a lot of red. He is great at many things. He hits the ball very hard a high percentage of the time. Looking at his 2024 season as a whole, he had an 80th percentile average exit velocity of 91.1 mph and an 83rd percentile hard hit%. He combines this with elite bat speed in the 83rd percentile. His plate discipline is slightly below league average but at just 24 years old, if we look at aging trends, this is something that will approach league average to above as he gets older. These numbers, as good as they are, were actually slightly lower than he showed his true talent could be by a slow start to his 2024 season from March to June. Pre all star break his OPS was just .686 which likely correlated with lower hard hit rates and exit velocities. However, this jumped to a .898 OPS post all star break. There is one more factor that will be on Butler’s side in 2025, and that is the new stadium he will be playing in. The Oakland Coliseum where he played his home games at in 2024 was hard on left handed hitters. It was the 27th hardest place to hit home runs for left handed hitters. The coliseum had an 81 park factor for home runs for left handed hitters so this means lefties at the Coliseum hit 19% less home runs than expected at other stadiums. This number is expected to completely flip as the A’s move to playing in Sacramento this season. We cannot be completely certain how the ballpark will play but the consensus among industry professionals is that it will be a much more hitter friendly environment. I am extremely excited to see what Butler will do for the A’s this season and see him easily reaching a 20-20 season in 2025 while potentially even pushing close to 30-30.