In-Depth Trade Analysis: Kyle Tucker Blockbuster

Trade Details:

Astros Receive: 3B Isaac Paredes, RHP Hayden Wesnseki, and 3B Cam Smith (CHI #7 prospect)

Cubs Receive: OF Kyle Tucker

On Friday the 13th a trade for Astros all star outfielder Kyle Tucker came to fruition. There were rumors swirling around his name during the winter meetings with the Cubs and Yankees mentioned frequently as suitors. The Cubs made the deal happen today and they get their star bat to bolster the lineup. The Cubs have sat around .500 each of the last 2 seasons with 83 wins. The team has lacked that superstar presence in the middle of their lineup. Kyle Tucker more than fits that mold for Chicago. This trade puts the Cubs in a similar position as the Yankees were in with Juan Soto last off-season. Tucker is set to become a free agent next off-season and being a Scott Boras client it is unlikely he entertains any extensions from the Cubs. The Cubs certainly have the money to spend to keep him but time will tell if that happens.

Evaluating Kyle Tucker

Kyle Tucker has been one of the more under appreciated superstars the entire time he has been in the majors. He has been an Astro his whole career and will be 28 at the start of next season who plays primarily in right field. He has a gold glove from 2022, a silver slugger from 2023 and a top 5 MVP finish from 2023 on his resume. He looked primed to be a top MVP candidate in 2024 as well before being sidelined with a shin fracture. In the time he did play, he posted a .289/.408/.585 slash line. He posted a 4.2 WAR in just 78 games. One of his greatest strengths is his plate discipline. In 2024 he walked more than he struck out which is something most players do not do. He does not chase and does not swing and miss very often. Unlike Paredes who was dealt to Houston in the trade , the conditions at Wrigley will not take away from any of Tucker's skill set. As seen below in his spray chart from 2024 placed in Wrigley Field.

Evaluating Astros Return

The Astros received 25 year old third baseman Isaac Paredes, 27 year old RHP Hayden Wesneski and the 14th overall draft pick from 2024, 21 year old 3B Cam Smith. The Cubs acquired Isaac Paredes from the Rays at the trade deadline of 2024. Many questioned the move at the time, and the doubters were proven right when Paredes struggled in Wrigley. Paredes is a heavy pull hitter who does not hit the ball hard. He pulls the ball 51.9% of the time, the third highest rate in the MLB. This skillset does not fair well at Wrigley Field historically but does in Houston. Minute Maid Park has the Crawford boxes down the left field line which provides short home run opportunities for right handed pull hitters. Baseball Savant calculates the expected home runs a player would have at each stadium based on different wall distances and heights. Paredes has 19 actual home runs in 2024, his expected home runs was 13 at Wrigley Field but 26 at Minute Maid, higher than any other stadium. This stat is why many hated the trade for Chicago when it happened in July. Paredes is a fantastic pickup for Houston considering these factors and should bounce back nicely in a stadium that suits his skillset.

Wesneski has had multiple injuries in 2024 and hasn't settled into a role yet in the MLB. He has bounced between the rotation and bullpen for 190 innings in the MLB since 2022. He has had a 3.93 ERA, 4.74 FIP, and 4.07 XFIP in his time in the big leagues. It is unclear what his role will be in Houston but first he will look to stay healthy.

Cam Smith was a 2024 draft pick and currently is ranked as the Cubs 7th overall prospect and is number 73 on the MLB Pipeline top 100 prospects list. He has not played above AA ball yet but performed well in his short time with the Cubs A and A+ teams. He had an OPS of 1.174 in A ball but that did drop to .774 in the small sample size he had in AA. Being so young, it is hard to tell the type of player Smith will become. He hits the ball to all parts of the field with a high ground ball rate. His arm was graded as his best tool with a 60 rating and his fielding with a 55. He has a hit rating of 55 and an average power rating of 50. He reminds me of a Ryan McMahon type player as a player comparison with not as great of defense. They have a similar build, Smith is 6' 3", 224 pounds and McMahon is 6' 2", 219 pounds. McMahon like Smith has decent power but hits the ball on the ground too much which limits his season home run totals to the 20-25 range even at Coors Field. McMahon also likes to use the whole field. I won't expect Smith to become as good as Kyle Tucker but would expect solid potentially all star level seasons from him in the future.

Future Implications of the Trade

Trading for Tucker was a fantastic move for Chicago as they desperately needed that star bat to improve their lineup. The Cubs are in a good position now to win the NL Central in 2025. The division is wide open with the Brewers currently losing a ton of talent with Adames signing with the Giants and the Devin Williams trade from earlier. The Cardinals seem to be in sell mode and the Reds and Pirates could make some noise with young talent but the Cubs seem poised to be favorites to win the division. Especially if they continue to make moves the rest of the off-season. They have flexibility to trade Suzuki or Bellinger and retool their roster. Suzuki seems more likely to be traded as Bellinger has the flexibility to move to first base or center field with Tucker coming in to play right field. I expect the Cubs are not done making moves and to see more activity from them.

It is always surprising to see competitive teams sell their talent. However, the Astros have been known to not hand out huge free agent contracts. We saw this with Springer, and Correa when they both walked when they hit the free agent market. They are likely expecting that Tucker will be too expensive for them to afford next off-season and wanted to get something for him. His value is higher now than it would be at the deadline and they saw this as the best time to pull the trigger on dealing him in a trade. The acquisition of Paredes could be a tell that the Astros will not bring back their long time 3B Alex Bregman as well. I expect the Astros to still be competitive in the AL West, a relatively weak division even without these players but the Astros team is definitely going to have a new look come 2025.